Traders are growing increasingly confident that U.S. stocks are headed for a selloff. But history shows the opposite is more likely, according to an analysis by one macro strategist.

Speculative traders are more bearish than at any time in the last decade, according to the latest release from the Commodity Futures Trading Commmission’s weekly commitment of traders report, which tracks futures-market positioning in a number of currencies, commodities and U.S. equity indexes.

Net-short…

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