The three major averages posted gains for the fourth week in row, lifted by strong quarterly earnings results for most of the Big Tech companies and a strong jobs report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite rose about 1% for the week, while the S & P 500 gained 1.2%. We are now nearly halfway through this earnings season. Of the 46% of the S & P 500 companies that have reported December quarter results so far, 72% had an upside earnings surprise, while 65% reported better-than-expected revenue results. On the macroeconomic front, it was all about jobs. A weaker ADP Employment report on Wednesday provided no read-through to the monster January jobs report Friday. The U.S. added 353,000 jobs in last month, way above the 185,000 economists had predicted. Moreover, both the December and November numbers were revised higher by a combined 126,000 jobs. Wage inflation was also hotter than expected, rising 4.5% versus the year ago period, above the 4.1% estimate. That initially caused a slight pullback in the futures of all three major averages, but the selling was short-lived as investors took comfort in the idea that the economy continues to chug along despite the elevated interest rates. It looks like good news is good news for the time being. Should inflation bounce back, that may not be the case. But the latest data shows inflation is coming down to more manageable levels, and folks are still at work and companies are growing sales and earnings as a result. The soft landing remains very much in play. Here’s what we’re keeping an eye on in the coming week: 1. Services. It will be a very light week on the macroeconomic front, but the ISM Services PMI will kick things off on Monday. Economists are looking for a reading of 52.3% for January, which would represent an accelerated expansion versus the 50.6% reading in December. As a reminder, the ISM report measures the rate of contraction/expansion, measured by the distance from that 50-level benchmark; the further below 50, the faster the contraction and the further above 50, the faster the rate of expansion. 2. Earnings: It’s another big earnings week head for the portfolio, with 8 more of our companies reporting. Estee Lauder , out Monday, has been highly problematic for a while now. Management’s inability to forecast has resulted in disappointment after disappointment. We have a 4 rating on the name, meaning we’re pretty much on the sidelines until we get more and better information. With China proving awful for Apple , Starbucks and Procter & Gamble , we aren’t getting our hopes up for the luxury cosmetics company that relies heavily on tourism spending in the world’s second largest economy. If Estee can simply maintain guidance, that may spark a relief rally. It’s likely nothing to get too excited about, but we would consider that a win as it would buy managment some time to get back on track. On Tuesday, Eli Lilly earnings is all about an update on the sales of its blockbuster Type 2 diabetes and weight-loss drug Mounjaro and the rate of growth for obesity treatment Zepbound. A positive update on Zepbound weekly subscriptions helped propel shares higher in January. We trimmed our position in GE Healthcare this past week to hedge against weak orders from China. However, we’re keeping shares on the view that the rollout of Alzheimer’s treatments and the integration of artificial intelligence into its products will lead to stronger pricing and higher margins. We’ll listen for confirmation of this thesis when the company reports Tuesday. DuPont already preannounced the quarter, so expectations are low for Tuesday’s report. As a result, the focus is entirely on the post-earnings conference call with investors. We’d like management’s view on where the operating environment goes from here to help inform whether we stick with the troubled industrial name or move on. We need to better understand how bad the China destocking dynamic, and would love the announcement of a buyback to stop the bleeding in the stock. Consistency is what we appreciate most from nat gas giant Linde , so we’re hoping for another quarter of solid earnings growth Tuesday. More broadly, we’d like to know if the company is benefiting from the global transition toward clean energy, along with management’s expectation for volume growth in 2024. For Ford earnings, also out Tuesday, electric vehicle losses will be a key watch item. Given the waning demand for EVs, we’re looking for management to really emphasize its new focus on hybrid vehicles, the sweet spot between EVs and traditional ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles. We’re looking for signs Ford can replicate the results at General Motors , which reported a profit beat in the fourth quarter and forecasted a stronger-than-expected 2024. One of the keys this year for the automaker is minimizing self-inflicted wounds. Too much money was left on the table last year because of warranty costs. Ford must fix its quality issues. Disney, which reports Wednesday, has to show continued progress on cost savings and efficiency initiatives. The pressure is on with activist investor Nelson Peltz of Trian Partners back in the picture. Aside from Disney+, where we hope the company can share the profit margin potential for the streaming platform once it breaks even — expected to happen by the end of the fiscal year. What’s happening with ESPN, which we feel isn’t being appropriately leveraged to its full potential? As with Estee, there is a China problem for Wynn Resorts, which has properties in Macau. Fortunately, management has proven effective operators (unlike the team at Estee Lauder in recent quarters) and the weakness in China is well understood by the market. As a result, we don’t think expectations are overly high for its print on Wednesday. In the third quarter, we learned that Macau properties were generating 85% of 2019 levels. Any further progress toward achieving 100% of those 2019 levels would be great. The market is looking for sequential growth across both China properties (with sequential growth in Wynn Macau – which came up short in the third quarter – expected to more than offset a slight sequential decline at Wynn Palace. As for Vegas, we expect to see some benefit from the F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix; the inaugural race was on Nov. 18 of last year. Monday, February 5 10:00 a.m. ET: ISM Services PMI Before the bell: Estée Lauder Companies (EL) , Caterpillar (CAT), McDonalds Corp. (MCD), onsemi (ON), Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT), Bowlero Corp. (BOWL), Tyson Foods (TSN), Air Products & Chemicals (APD), IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX), Affiliated Managers Group (AMG), CNA Financial Corp. (CNA), Timken Company (TKR), Graham Corporation (GHM), Mesa Laboratories (MLAB), Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR), Loews Corp (L) After the bell: Palantir Technologies (PLTR), Symbotic (SYM), Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI), Simon Property Group (SPG), Amkor Technology (AMKR), Chegg (CHGG), FMC Corporation (FMC), Rambus (RMBS), BellRing Brands (BRBR), Crown Holdings (CCK), ChampionX Corporation (CHX), Golub Capital BDC LLC (GBDC), Flexsteel Industries (FLXS), Fabrinet (FN), Kilroy Realty Corp. (KRC), Coherent (COHR), Gladstone Capital Corp. (GLAD), Hillenbrand (HI), Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. (ITUB), J & J Snack Foods Corp. (JJSF), Kimball Electronics (KE), Kforce (KFRC), Skyline Corp. (SKY), AECOM (ACM), Cabot Corporation (CBT), Simpson Manufacturing Co. (SSD), Varonis Systems (VRNS) Tuesday, February 6 Before the bell: Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) , GE HealthCare (GEHC) , Linde plc (LIN) , DuPont (DD) , Fiserv (FI), Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT), BP p.l.c (BP), Hertz Global Holdings (HTZ), Spirit AeroSystems Holdings (SPR), Toyota Motor Corp. (TM), Cummins (CMI), AMETEK (AME), Check Point Software Technologies (CHKP), AGCO Corporation (AGCO), Autohome (ATHM), Carrier Global Corporation (CARR), Lear Corp. (LEA), CONSOL Energy (CEIX), Centene Corporation (CNC), Gartner (IT), Jacobs (J), Valvoline (VVV), Arcbest Corp. (ARCB), AudioCodes (AUDC), CTS Corporation (CTS), Energizer Holdings (ENR), Hamilton Lane Incorporated (HLNE), KKR & Co. L.P. (KKR), Precision Drilling Corporation (PDS), Premier (PINC), Tradeweb Markets (TW), Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC), Waters Corp. (WAT), Xylem (XYL), Alfa Laval (ALFVY), Aramark Holdings Corp. (ARMK), Cerence (CRNC), FirstService Corporation (FSV), Ingredion Incorporated (INGR), Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (MSGS), New Jersey Resources Corp. (NJR), nVent Electric plc (NVT), PJT Partners (PJT), PNM Resources (PNM), ScanSource (SCSC), Sensata Technologies Holding N.V (ST), Willis Towers Watson (WTW) After the bell: Ford Motor Company (F) , Snap (SNAP), Enphase Energy (ENPH), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), e.l.f. Beauty (ELF), Fortinet (FTNT), VF Corp. (VFC), Amgen (AMGN), MicroStrategy (MSTR), Edwards Lifesciences Corp. (EW), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Lumen Technologies (LUMN), Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. (CTSH), Weatherford International plc (WFRD), Amcor plc (AMCR), Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR), AllianceBernstein Holding LP (AB), Advanced Energy Industries (AEIS) Wednesday, February 7 Before the bell: Alibaba Group Holding (BABA), Uber Technologies (UBER), CVS Health (CVS), Roblox Corporation (RBLX), Ares Capital Corp (ARCC), Bunge (BG), XPO Logistics (XPO), Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG), Berry Global Group (BERY), Ceridian HCM Holding (CDAY), Flex LNG (FLNG), Equinor ASA (EQNR), Griffon Corporation (GFF), OneMain Holdings (OMF), Brookfield Asset Management (BAM), Emerson Electric Co. (EMR), Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT), Reynolds Consumer Products (REYN), Silicon Laboratories (SLAB), Yum! Brands (YUM), Anavex Life Sciences (AVXL), CDW Corp (CDW), Fox Corporation (FOXA) After the bell: Walt Disney (DIS) , Wynn Resorts (WYNN) , PayPal (PYPL), Arm Holdings plc (ARM), Axcelis Technologies (ACLS), Confluent (CFLT), Mattel (MAT), Paycom Software (PAYC), Annaly Capital Management (NLY), McKesson Corp. (MCK), Encompass Health Corporation (EHC), O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY), Allstate Corp. (ALL), Oscar Health (OSCR), Fluence Energy (FLNC), Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR), Digital Turbine (APPS), Blue Bird Corp. (BLBD), Everest Group, (EG), Omega HealthCare Investors (OHI), Paycor HCM, (PYCR), Coty (COTY) Thursday, February 8 8:30 a.m. ET: Initial Jobless Claims Before the bell: ConocoPhillips (COP), Cameco Corp. (CCJ), Philip Morris International (PM), Spirit Airlines (SAVE), Hershey Company (HSY), Lightspeed Commerce (LSPD), Aurora Cannabis (ACB), Dynatrace, (DT), Lincoln National Corp. (LNC), Tapestry (TPR), S & P Global (SPGI), Tenet Healthcare Corp. (THC), Under Armour (UAA), Asbury Automotive Group (ABG), Arrow Electronics (ARW), Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA), Baxter International (BAX), BorgWarner (BWA), CyberArk (CYBR) After the bell: Affirm Holdings (AFRM), Pinterest (PINS), Cloudflare (NET), DexCom (DXCM), Expedia (EXPE), CleanSpark (CLSK), Bill.comHoldings (BILL), Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO), Illumina (ILMN), PetMed Express (PETS), Boyd Gaming Corp. (BYD), Impinj (PI), FirstEnergy Corp. (FE), Motorola Solutions (MSI), Terex Corp. (TEX), Doximity (DOCS) Friday, February 9 Before the bell: PepsiCo (PEP), Canopy Growth Corporation (CGC), Enbridge (ENB), AMC Networks (AMCX), Blue Owl Capital (OWL), Plains All American Pipeline (PAA), TELUS International (TIXT), Magna International (MGA), Newell Brands (NWL) (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
The three major averages posted gains for the fourth week in row, lifted by strong quarterly earnings results for most of the Big Tech companies and a strong jobs report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite rose about 1% for the week, while the S&P 500 gained 1.2%.
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