It’s just one day after President Joe Biden announced that he would end his reelection campaign and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to be the Democratic nominee taking on former President Donald Trump in this year’s presidential race. That’s far too soon for polling to capture the dynamics of a fast-evolving campaign, but polling conducted before Biden’s announcement provides some early indications of how a Harris for President campaign might try to improve on Biden’s standing in the race.
CNN’s polling in late June tested Biden’s support against Trump in the wake of the presidential debate, and it also looked at how Harris would fare in a hypothetical matchup with the former president.
Overall, Harris held 45% support to Trump’s 47% among registered voters nationwide, a result with no clear leader, within the poll’s margin of sampling error. Biden trailed Trump by 6 points in the same poll.
Harris outperformed Biden against Trump among women – notably among women of color and suburban women – and political independents, and she held an advantage over Trump among voters who said they weren’t fully locked in to their presidential choices. The data also suggests Harris fared somewhat better than Biden among younger voters, a particular point of concern for Democrats during the campaign so far.
Here’s a look at some of the key numbers:
Women: Harris held the support of 50% of women registered voters to Trump’s 43%, while Biden only held the support of 44% of women to Trump’s 47%. Among suburban women, a key segment of Biden’s coalition in 2020, Harris held 55% support to Trump’s 39%, while Biden stood at 49% to Trump’s 43%. Men broke for Trump by about 10 points regardless of whether the Democrat was Biden or Harris.
Independents and movable voters: Harris split political independents about evenly with Trump, 43% said they supported her and 40% Trump. Biden, however, trailed Trump by 10 points among that same group of independent voters, 44% Trump to 34% Biden.
Movable voters, those who either didn’t have a first choice or said they could change their minds about Biden vs. Trump, said they were more apt to back Harris over Trump than to favor Biden over the former president. While these voters split 39% Trump to 37% Biden, Harris had considerably more support with this group, which broke in her favor 47% Harris to 34% Trump. Voters who said their choices were already locked in were about the same in both matchups, suggesting those solid Biden voters are quite likely to become Harris voters should she become the party’s nominee: Those who said they’d made up their minds split 53% Trump to 45% Biden, and it was 53% Trump to 45% Harris among that same group.
Voters of color: Most voters of color supported the vice president over the former president, 58% Harris to 29% Trump, while this group split 54% Biden to 33% Trump in that matchup. Among women of color, Harris outperformed Biden by 10 points: 63% of women of color said they backed Harris over Trump, compared with 53% who said the same about Biden.
Younger voters: Harris fares better among younger voters than Biden did, though her support in the poll still lags behind the level that Democratic presidential candidates have received in recent cycles. Among voters younger than 35, 42% backed Harris to 41% for Trump, compared with 47% Trump to 41% Biden among that same group.
It’s important to note that voters’ take on a Harris vs. Trump race at the time of the CNN poll was largely hypothetical – Biden had not stepped aside, and there was no precedent for such a move in the era of the presidential primary system – so the results here are more suggestive of what might happen than a read on what is happening now that the matchup appears to be a reality.
Voters’ impressions of candidates can and do change once they’ve gone from hypothetical to declared candidates, so the way voters felt about it in late June may not match what they say when asked about a Harris-Trump matchup in the wake of Biden’s decision to step aside.
The poll suggests there is some room for views of Harris to change. Among registered voters, 32% said they had a favorable impression of her, 53% an unfavorable one, with roughly 15% saying they either hadn’t heard of her or didn’t yet know enough to say. Among those without firm opinions about her, Harris held a lead over Trump, 57% to 22%, suggesting a key challenge going forward will be keeping these voters on board as they learn more about her.
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